The latest One News / Colmar Brunton poll was published by TVNZ on Sunday night. The results are as follows, with the brackets showing the results from the April, March and February:
Lab - 31% (39, 37, 39)
Nat - 56% (49, 46, 46)
Grn - 6% (6, 7, 7)
NZF - 2% (2, 2, 2)
MP - 3% (2, 3, 3)
UF - 1% (1, 2, 1)
ACT - --% (1, 2, 1)
The Preferred Prime Minister numbers are as follows:
Helen Clark - 27% (37, 32, 32)
John Key - 38% (29, 29, 27)
Winston Peters - 2% (3, 4, 3)
In my commentary on the last Colmar Brunton poll, I said that tight political management would be required to bring Labour back from this point. The polls always have a lag time, and I would be reasonably comfortable in asserting that things will get worse for Labour before they get better.
Steps to recovery? Not panicking; tight political management; stronger communications and a fresher style of engaging with the public. The first point to a turnaround, surely, would be acknowledging that people are interested in the other side (for the first time since the late 1980s) and working out why that is the case -- and then doing something about it.
Self evidently, the problem isn't substance. People aren't unhappy with particular policies, though the call for a tax cut is very widespread (and shows Labour's handling of the tax debate has not succeeded). They are looking for a different style. After eight years, that's understandable. Labour's challenge is to deliver such a change. There are lots of options for Helen Clark and the caucus team to present a different sort of government and to respond to that mood for a fresher style of politics. They need to explore them.
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