NZ Herald Digipoll: June 07

Today's Herald carried the results of the latest Digipoll. The results are below with those of the previous two polls I have records for (May 07, Feb 07, Dec 06) in brackets in that order:

Lab - 40.1% (33.6, 40.6, 41.7)
Nat - 48.2% (50.9, 43.1, 42)
Grn - 4% (6.1, 7.2, 6.1)
NZF - 3% (3.2, 3.1, 3.4)
UF - 0.3% (0.8, 0.7, 1.6)
ACT - 0.6% (0.7, 0.7, 1.0)
MP - 2.4% (1.7, 2.6, 2.0)

The preferred PM ratings show:

Clark at 45.8% (42.1, ??, 54.2)
Key at 42.2% (45.5, ??, 17.3)
Peters at 5.2% (5.4, ??, 6.3)

The 8% gap that this shows between National and Labour is a much healthier result than the 17% gap that the last poll in this series highlighted. There has been a noticeable (to my mind anyway) improvement in the government's political management in the past month, and some of the Budget announcements - particularly around Kiwisaver - should have helped with this. In addition the PM has been highly visible for the first time in some months, dealing with Fiji, a successful Australian trip, etc.

There is an oddity about this poll in that it was taken over a large number of days, so we will need to see as the next round of other polls roll out if they show any change along the lines of this one - a smaller gap - or whether it is not shifting so much.

In my commentary on the last poll (TVNZ's Colmar Brunton) I said it would get worse for Labour before it got better. That may yet be the case. Won't know if it is though for a few weeks to come. A corner may have been turned.

Comments

[aaa]

Clark's had a good run of grandstanding on the Muliaga tradegy and bullying the Fijian's. Key is still the leader to beat.

[Nicholas O'Kane]

The 17% gap was artificially high, as gaps like that rarely happen in real life. As Asa points out, issue like the Muliaga death (not only because of Clark's grandstanding but also sending a message of the dangers of privatisation) and Fiji have helped Clark and Labour. John Key predicting to win in a landslide wasn't a good idea. One other bonus for Labour is that for the first time this year, there was a month without anything dominating the headlines that made Labour look bad (eg anti-smacking bill, and this has given labour recently a bad run in the polls). Also, new Zealanders are getting use to Key, and looking for policy (releasing it now would be a mistake as it would give labour a long time to attack it, and it will deprive national of the chance to make good headlines with policy releases closer to the election). with time the anger over the anti-smacking bill is starting to subside. However, with National on 48%, it is still in an election winning position. Labour can't win with national above 48%. I won't read too much into the Greens being below 5%. This is just a one-of poll, and they are likely to increase suport next election. With New Zealanders getting use to Key (honeymoon ending) and no National policy anouncements, this should be the start of a long slow Labour comeback (in the polls, which while usefull, are not always reflective of how peiple will actually vote), until early 2008, when Natiomnal starts releasing policy, and both leaders usually make important speeches. 2008 should be an interesting year in politics.

[DarrenG]

Yes, I guess Clark has been lucky with the news. Fiji had kept her blunders off the front pages.
I'm curious how the Mercury energy fiasco showed the "dangers of privatisation."
Mercury is a state owned enterprise.
The government appoints its board and sets the financial targets.
So Clark and Cullen are responsible for how the company operates.
The management, whom the pair appointed, is just obeying their orders.
There again, much of the media is too dumb or too biased to point this out, so a significant minority fall for the poor 'Muliagas are poor, innocent victims' view.
Yes, the event was tragic but the role of the Muliaga's, their own responsibility should not be ignored.
It seems like an almighty cock-up where a whole range of people or organisations can be blamed, including the Muliagas themselves.
Instead, the finger is being pointed at Mercury- a government-owned company, controlled by the government, and who is the government, but Clark and Cullen.

[Jordan Carter]

I think it is worth noting that with Don Brash as National Party leader, National was around 17% ahead in Feb 04. Look what happened at the electoral outcome....

Now of course, Key is not Brash. He doesn't have his record of substance and purpose in public life. That said, nor does he have the kind of scary right wing background. In fact, in policy, he has no background... a strength, and a weakness for him.

Nick O'Kaine also makes an important point. Look what happens when Labour begins managing things properly. Now imagine that Labour continues to do that from now through to the election.

The only thing I know about next year's election is that National or Labour could win it. I think the odds are on Labour, because if I had to choose between Clark or Key having the staying power to haul through the next 18 months, I know where my money would be.

[toms]

There is no doubt that National mis-read the public reaction to the Mercury energy thing. Billy Bunter Brownlee shot his mouth off, and got silenced. That made National's position deafening by its absence, and public - particularly the South Auckland Labour heartland - noticed. This issue shored up Labour's support, that much is for sure!

But working for families is now really starting to flow through. I noticed a story in todays Herald saying demand for food parcels has eased for the first time in 15 years. I think National's inability to state a position on Kiwisaver is slow burner that is eroding public's honeymoon with Key. And despite the right wing bitching, the free childcare scheme looks a winner.

Despite the bitterness about "middle class welfare" from the right (whats wrong with that, apart from a hysterical Victorianism, BTW?) the government is significantly enriching poorer New Zealanders and the trickle up effect is all that is standing between us a recession. A return to a Sheriff of Nottingham approach from National would be a catastrophre and I think more and more lower middle income New Zealanders are twigging on to that.

The next election is a long way off. The public is starting to perceive Key for what he is - a scharmy money market game-player of little political substance. Key is our version of David Cameron.

[aaa]

"Nick O'Kaine also makes an important point. Look what happens when Labour begins managing things properly. Now imagine that Labour continues to do that from now through to the election."

Yeah thats a nice take on Clark profiting on Muliaga's death. Unfortunately we don't have any high profile journalists in NZ with the guts to come right out and say it - although one prominent journalist has all but said it.

Besides which since the coup in Fiji, the Labour caucaus has been rubbing its hands with glee - nice free airtime and PR for Clark. She gets to look like a "leader".

All this political crap really sickens me - particularly the little sycophants like Jordan Carter that twist and distort things to serve party gain.

[Jane]

The Green Party isn't looking too good in the poll. I like some of their policies. Perhaps if Sue Bradford et al focused more on what the majority of New Zealanders want, then they'd be more popular.

National's going really well, which is of no surprise to me. John Key has expressed some policy ideas that are appealing to people of all 'classes'.

Labour politicians will be worried. Labour's done well of late in terms of public performances but the popularity they have from that is slowly but surely slipping away.

The Maori Party have surprised me in regards to how well they are going. Tariana Turia was criticised quite heavy after her speeches in the debate leading up to the last election, but I think she's doing very well. She seems to be leading the Maoris into the revolution that they seem to want, which is probably a good thing for all New Zealanders if policies which are fair to people of all races are implemented.

I think overall ACT is doing the best. They've certainly surpirsed me. Many of their policies are in the centre, though, so maybe that explains their success.

[Conor]

One of the more interesting things about this poll is the Green's result. Down to 4%. And why?

Dance with the National Party, no matter how nice its superficial packaging is, and your supporters will leave you. That is a pretty important lesson they will need to learn before the next election.

[Billy]

TomS: "Despite the bitterness about "middle class welfare" from the right (whats wrong with that, apart from a hysterical Victorianism, BTW?)..."

Are you serious? Who do you guess is providing the money for the subsidy in the first place?

[Nicholas O'Kane]

"I'm curious how the Mercury energy fiasco showed the "dangers of privatisation."
Mercury is a state owned enterprise."
Your right Darren G, but in politics its not so much the truth but what people think is the truth that matters. Not many people would know that mecury energy is govt owned. they would hear the story about power company killing someone by cutting off power supply to life suport mahine, and think of companies putting profit before people, and worry about privatisation doing so.
As for me making an important point about what happens when labour begins managing things properly, it does show that labour can remain competitive whn managing things properly. however, even if Labour was to continue doing so until the election, this alone won't see Labour overtake National.There is always the luck factor in deciding what happens to news headlines. and a good proportion of the electorate (at least 40%) want labour gone. as I see it around 405 of the country are Labour leaning, 45% National leaning, and 5% Green leaning. This leaves a crucial 10% swing, of whom around 5% are to the center parties of NZ First and united leaning. Around 5% are right in the middle swing voters. the challenge of national will be to keep its 45% conservative core intact, while grabbing most of that centrist conservative NZ First and united vote, and the 5% swing vote. Labour must reduce nationals suport, and win close to all that 5% swing vote. One important point to notice is National is still at 48%. if National keeps doing so well, Labour can not win. also, as for the more recent news, things like the anti-smacking bill, even if people forget about them, can have damaging long term effects 9ie by reinforcing a picture of arrogant dictatorial clark with her whiping of MPs into line, and a centrist key with his "compromise") these perceptions will take longer to go away.

[Jane]

If an SOE can be so apparently heartless and puts profits before people on its list of priorities, how much worse off will we be if more sectors were privatized? Probably a lot.

Private companies aren't elected, but obviously Governments are, so I would rather have the state own a large proportion of assets in all sectors, rather than the Government deciding to privatize sectors heavily.

[Billy]

Interesting, Jane. Can you give us some ideas of the sectors in which you consider the government should own large proportions of assets? Food production? Food distribution? Housing construction? Provision of Housing? Boat building? The advertising industry? Oil exploration?

[Billy]

Interesting, Jane. Can you give us some ideas of the sectors in which you consider the government should own large proportions of assets? Food production? Food distribution? Housing construction? Provision of Housing? Boat building? The advertising industry? Oil exploration?

[GNZ]

Good work labour - youve started to do the smart moves that keep a party elected. On many issues your outmanouvering national in ways that will mean real votes come election time. keep it up and you'll get that victory - do somthing stupid again and you'll be on your asses for a couple of terms.

Now if only the green party would pay some attention and get with the programme.

BTW UF deserves to be axed entirely - shame he will win his electorate yet again.

GNZ

[tim barclay]

Do not get too excited about turning a corner the road is long and winding and both Clark and Cullen are quite capable of making major strategic errors. The fine print of kiwisaver is emerging and what with student loan repayments and other cost increaes I do not think there is much warmth with the young for this scheme.

[burt]

GNZ

"Good work labour - youve started to do the smart moves that keep a party elected." Sadly though GNZ smart moves that get a party elected don't always translate into good outcomes for the country. I think the current 'power before principals' bunch we have at the moment don't give a toss about how their policies actually effect real people, as long as they have an upward effect on opinion polls, get the vote of the missing demographic etc. The public can't be expected to think "hey interest free student loans and welfare for people earning $140,000/year are going to have a major impact on inflation". Ordinary people can't be expected to recognise that a housing deposit scheme in Kiwisaver will add millions of dollars and thousands of buyers to the housing market which will certainly see prices rise, They just like the idea of it and vote for it based on how they perceive how it will benefit them. These sorts of policies, without published costing (ideological burps and all) might however get them back on track for wining the lolly scramble. Once they have done that expect lollies to be banned because they might be highly desirable but they are not good for us.

Jane

"If an SOE can be so apparently heartless and puts profits before people on its list of priorities, how much worse off will we be if more sectors were privatized? Probably a lot."

Well lets not get too partisan about this. Just remember that private business seldom operates with as little accountability as Govt. Shareholder value (yes that terrible terrible thing that the left so hate) ensures that a business puts a lot of weight on staying in business, servicing it's customers well and providing a quality product - unlike an SOE which has the backing of tax payers money when it operates it's business like a muppet. As for Mercury - such a shame the PM spoke so much about it before she knew the facts, pity we didn't know that Mrs. Muliaga was a lot sicker than initial reports, pity nobody in Govt asked why she was at home rather than in a hospital. One could equally say the health system was the biggest "nasty party" in this situation but it's not Labour party style to take it on the chin. Deny, Delay and Denigrate. It had to be the power company that took the hit eh, they were the closest thing to nasty private enterprise in the entire sad situation.

[Damian]

Jordan,

Your reason for believing Labour will win is spurious. My pick would be National - mainly because of the mortgage belt and what will happen next year with fixed rate mortgages coming up for review.

Why do you insist on listing Labour first when they are not polling ahead?

[tim barclay]

The more interesting result is the decline of the Greens a small increase in Labour and the Greens crash below the 5% threashold, better throw Jeanette a seat as well just in case.

[Oliver]

Jane,

When they looked over power company policies for disconnection the one that was lauded as the best to follow was Contact Energy, the only 100% privately ownned power company in NZ

[NX]

Tim Barclay said: The more interesting result is the decline of the Greens a small increase in Labour and the Greens crash below the 5% threshold,

Absolutely. Why Jordon fails to mention this in his 'analysis' is curious.

It's good to see John right up there in the preferred PM stakes - very unusual for an opposition leader.

Jordon said: because if I had to choose between Clark or Key having the staying power to haul through the next 18 months,

Heh... John wanted to be a politician @ 10 years of age so drive & endurance won't be a problem for him!

[GNZ]

> Clark and Cullen are quite capable of making major strategic errors.

indeed -take the whole 3 years prior to this recent period which was really one big f*up.

Jane,

> smart moves that get a party elected don't always translate into good outcomes for the country.

I agree.

> don't give a toss about how their policies actually effect real people

I dont think national cares either. In fact if anything it cares less. you can tell that by how their policies seem fairly directly aligned towards getting elected as opposed to being coherent.

> "hey interest free student loans and welfare for people earning $140,000/year are going to have a major impact on inflation".

and they do have an effect and Im not trying to be partisan but I point out that it would be somewhat less than the tax cut alternative. Further, at least labour is floating solutions.

> Ordinary people can't be expected to recognise that a housing deposit scheme in Kiwisaver will add millions of dollars and thousands of buyers to the housing market which will certainly see prices rise

that isn't quite as favourable as you might think (the government will take it's share back) and there are time frames involved. its also has social effects labour might approve of so they might have actually thought it through. Having said that I might easily side with you on that one. But bottom line for kiwisaver is of national tries to remove it they are shooting themselves in the foot.

[Damian]

I am going to back Jordan here and Helen Clark and say the honeymoon for Key is over. That's the great thing if you're in government is you control the purse strings and can release policy.

I see some ads for Kiwisaver using the Labour logo etc to advertise. I dont like this but the Beehive have decided that the best way to get ahead is simply to get Clark out and about with photo ops and build her profile.

I expect the gap to close up further and perhaps to a 5% lead for the Nats which is fairly unremarkable given the Greens and that they're likely to get over 5% come election time.

For us Nats we need not to be so complacent and work hard to defend our lead and win the next election. Helen wants it bad and will fight tooth and nail, she is a great competitor and we must respect the Labour election machine. The election is far from won. Game on.

[Sam]

Tim - I am interested in the fine print that you mention regarding Kiwisaver and the Student Loans Scheme - can you direct me to where this information is coming out...? Thanks

[Jane]

"... John wanted to be a politician @ 10 years of age so drive and endurance won't be a problem for him." We don't know that. It could prove to be an overwhelming job for him if he's elected PM. Or maybe his banker buddies will help him out and lead him in the 'right' direction!